OUTLOOK FOR THE ART MARKET IN 2024
Over the years I have been regularly asked for my thoughts on how the art market will look one year ahead. Last year I was asked by Mintus, the online investment platform, to write an article about this. Here goes for 2024, lets see how things pan out.
CONSOLIDATION OF THE AFRICAN MARKET AND ITS DIASPORA
Although total revenues from the major global auction houses declined by around 16% in 2023, the African market held up well, revenues declining year on year by 8%; this is partly because African art tends to be undervalued when compared to the older, more mature and traditional markets in the USA and Europe. In the African market around 80% of works sold are by contemporary artists and in 2023 over 50% of the sales turnover was from women artists (Marlene Dumas, Julie Mehretu and Lynette Yiadom-Boakye performing particularly strongly). Furthermore it was noticeable that at the recent Frieze LA art fair Hauser &Wirth sold one work by Frank Bowling for $800,000 and another work by Ed Clark for $950,000, both of these great artists having recently experienced a marked reevaluation of their work, driven partly by being represented by one of the most prestigious art dealers. I expect the African contemporary and modern art market to further mature in 2024.
FEMALE ARTISTS CONTINUE TO TAKE A LARGER SHARE OF THE ART MARKET PIE
Sales of works by female artists increased by almost 10% in 2023 as a share of the overall market; however this is still only around 15% of the overall total. There is a huge amount of potential growth here and in newer, so called ‘emerging markets’ in particular. For example a beautiful work by Etel Adnan (shown below), the Lebanese-American poet and artist recently sold at Sotheby’s London for a record price of £350,000 plus fees on an evening when the overall total of the auction was down 40% year on year. The gender gap in the art market will continue to narrow
THE LONDON MARKET IS STILL UNDER PRESSURE
The London market is still suffering from the fallout from Brexit. Logistics concerning art transport, import and export tariffs and fees are still prohibitive at all levels of the market. In addition, political uncertainty both nationally and globally, with elections in both the UK and the USA scheduled for later this year, is not good for market stability. Add to this global crises, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the light at the end of the tunnel seems a long way away. Having said all of this London remains an important global centre because of the depth and wealth of its world-class auction houses, galleries and museums and because the City is at a global crossroads for business and finance with a huge diversity of high net-worth individuals from all over the Globe.
MOVEMENT AWAY FROM FIGURATIVE ART TO ABSTRACT ART
I have particularly sensed this in the African and Middle Eastern markets. Artists like El Anatsui, whose beautiful installation is still on view in the Turbine Hall at the Tate Modern Museum in London (illustrated below) , Ed Clark and Frank Bowling, mentioned above as well as Etel Adnan. However I have to admit a bias here because my personal tastes tend to focus in this direction. In addition the profile and market position of eco-conscious artists, like Olafur Eliasson, will continue to grow, particularly at art fairs and in Museum shows. I expect this to be noticeable at the 60th edition of the Venice Biennale, which takes place between April and November this year.
THE NFT MARKET WILL TAKE TIME TO MATURE
There was a boom during the Covid pandemic and I do not sense that this sector of the market is at a position where it will begin to make significant inroads into the traditional art market. At some stage artists who truly understand the medium will begin to do incredible things with it, but I see no evidence of anything significant happening in this direction yet.